Corby by-election preview – part 1

It’s now widely known that Louise Mensch has stood down as the MP for Corby. She decided to do it in order to spend more time with her family. She will also be moving to the U.S., so she can be with her husband, Peter (the manager of Metallica).

So, what does this mean for Corby? Obviously, there will be a hotly contested by-election. This part of the preview goes into some detail about the political history of the constituency. I also look at local councils and the nearby areas.

Constituency history

Corby first came into existence as a political constituency in 1983. It was (and currently is) part of a larger region that has a large population of Conservative supporters. The following table shows the results of the first election and gives you an idea of the support for the respective parties/ideologies at the time:

This was the last time that the total number of valid votes would be below 50,000 until 2001. The Conservatives won with 6% more of the votes and a margin of 3168. That definitely couldn’t be considered a large margin. It’s worth noting that the Liberals had very little chance at this point.

The following chart shows the vote margins for each party from this election up to (and including) 2010:

Votes in Corby since the creation of the constituency.

As you can see, there was a big change in 1997, when it changed to a Labour seat, with the biggest vote total of any point in the constituency’s history. Phil Hope (the Labour MP) won three successive elections (reflective of national results), but it’s worth noting the substantial drop in his vote total on each occasion. Even after the switch back to Conservative in 2010, it remained a two horse race.

The Liberal Democrats (despite the supposed ‘Cleggmania’ at the time) failed to get anything near a competitive vote total. Also, each time they’ve had a candidate, they’ve got a total lower than the Liberal totals from both 1983 and 1987 (they were well out of the running on both occasions too). There is nothing to suggest it will be anything other than a two horse race this time, particularly when you consider the criticism of the Liberal Democrats’ part in the Coalition and their national approval ratings that have nosedived and are now equal with UKIP.

Interestingly, UKIP had Ian Gillman as a candidate on three successive occasions (from 1997 until 2005). On each occasion his vote total increased and that is reflective of the constituency’s switch to the right/centre-right as a whole (see the Conservative figures). Strangely, they didn’t have a candidate in 2010, despite their increasing popularity. Given their current opinion poll ratings, I expect this to change in the by-election.

Corby turnouts since the creation of the constituency.

I think this pattern is relatively unusual. Given the negativity and apathy surrounding politics over the years, I would have expected to see a steady decline in numbers. However, there has only bee a decrease on two occasions and they were the first two of the three Labour victories. Turnout was at it’s highest in 1992, when John Major was leader. There were increases during the Thatcher years though, so the spike wasn’t just because of a leader change. Bizarrely, the national interest in ‘New Labour’ did not translate to a further turnout increase in 1997. It was the same Conservative candidate, but perhaps it was because the notably Tory population saw Labour’s national popularity and felt there was no point in going to the ballot box.

Louise Mensch (then Bagshawe) was an ‘A’ list candidate without a solid career in politics, but was dropped into the area in 2010 because it was a safe seat. She won and increased the Conservative share of the vote by 2.27%. Labour’s vote total increased by 22, but the percentage share dropped by 4.46% (Labour’s national approval ratings and Phil Hope’s part in the expenses scandal?). The turnout increased dramatically, although Bagshawe/Mensch only had a majority of 1951. Even though it was low, it was the third highest turnout in the history of the constituency.

As this is a by-election, the turnout should drop significantly (despite previous numbers). I also expect the Tory turnout to be low too, based on national approval ratings (similar to the situation in 1997).

Nearby areas

As I mentioned earlier, Corby has a large Conservative contingent and the surrounding region is also very Tory. The following table shows details about nearby constituencies from the 2010 general election:

In 2005, all of the above seats were also Conservative. Three out of the five runners-up were the Liberal Democrats.

In the above table, you can see that all of the winners enjoyed significant margins and higher vote share percentages, which makes Corby a bit of an anomaly. Given the surrounding area, it’s also unusual because it at a Labour incumbent in 2010.

Council politics

Local politics seems to differ in Corby, which doesn’t necessarily make it unique as some parties do better at a local level. However, the aforementioned strong Tory support in General Elections should theoretically mean that there would be more Tory members on the Council. The current composition is:

• Labour: 22
• Conservative: 4
• Liberal Democrat: 3

Only three of the 15 wards have Tory representatives. In the most recent Council elections, the Conservative Party lost 4 and the Liberal Democrats lost 2. This is unsurprising due to the fact that a lot of people cannot separate local and national politics.

The nearby Councils of Rutland, Melton, South Kesteven, Lincolnshire, Wellingborough, Kettering and South Cambridgeshire are all controlled by the Conservatives, which is more reflective of their MP representation.

Summary and Conclusion

The Corby constituency is an anomaly. It’s part of a region that is strongly Conservative at both a local and national level. Three of the five nearby constituencies had Liberal Democrat runners up in the most recent General Election and it was the same way in 2005. So, for there to be three successive Labour victories in this area is strange. I can only assume that the local Tory supporters felt that there was no point going to the ballot box based on national opinion polls.

As I mentioned earlier, I expect the turnout to be low in this by election and it’s not a certainty that the Tory voters will come out in force. Unless there is a solid campaign from the Conservatives and a viable candidate, it could end up being a repeat of 1997. This time though, the seat is more high profile and it would be a problem in terms of public relations.

In the next part of this preview, I’ll be analysing some of the bigger news stories related to Louise Mensch’s resignation, as well as looking at some of the campaigning that has already started.

So, what do you think?